Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionPhilip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner / Jul 18, 2019
Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking Fast and Slow Jason Zweig The Wall Street Journal Everyone would
A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week s meals Unfortunately, peopleA New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week s meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets They ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden s compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn t require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life and is destined to become a modern classic.From the Hardcover edition.
Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Buy Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Unabridged by Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Joel Richards ISBN from s Book Store Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask and receive the track record of the forecasters As a result, we end up consuming a lot of bad forecasts, as we end up hearing from those who are better at entertaining than they are at forecasting. Balance Legal Capital litigation funding and strategic Litigation Superforecasting, Part put a number on it This is the first of a three part series in which Robert Rothkopf extracts important lessons for litigators and consumers of legal advice from the recent book Superforecasting The Art Science of Prediction. Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future Ep Here s where you can learn about the people and ideas behind this episode PEOPLE Philip E Tetlock, professor of management and psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, author of Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Jonathan Bales, co founder of Fantasy Labs and author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series Research UK Investment Fund Phoenix Asset Management Reading is an essential part of our research process at Phoenix Here, we share some of the books we have found useful We update our reading room regularly, so come back to see new additions. The Art of the Long View Planning for the Fulfillment by FBA is a service we offer sellers that lets them store their products in s fulfillment centers, and we directly pack, ship, and provide customer service for these products. All Conversations Edge Printed On Sun March th STAT Book List University of California, Berkeley Reviews of non technical books relating to Probability These reviews were originally created for my course Probability and the Real World but may be of wider interest Suggestions for Spring Exam Book List SOA Corporate Finance and ERM Strategic Decision Making ISBN The xVA Challenge, Gregory, J.Third Edition, , John Wiley Sons
↠ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction || ✓ PDF Download by ↠ Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner 453 Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner
Title: ↠ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction || ✓ PDF Download by ↠ Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner